The cash flow forecast – the essential tool

The Covid 19 virus and resultant lockdown is putting firms finances under pressure – and leaders are looking to the finance teams for guidance.

Unfortunately, most of the Management Information regularly produced is historic. What has happened, not what will happen. Rather like using the rear-view mirror to drive the car, it gives no indication of what lies ahead.

What we need is to know what our financial position is likely to be in the future and whether we have enough resources to continue as we are.

In effect what we need is a road map which shows where we are headed – hopefully not for a Cliff edge. This is the role of the cash flow forecast.

The cash flow forecast is a future prediction of our income received (cash inflows) and expenditure (Cash outflows).

By taking the current cash (or overdraft) position, adding the forecast inflows, and deducting the cash outflows, we can forecast the closing balance (or overdraft) at a future date.

Hopefully, the resulting balance is well within our available facilities. If so, carry on as normal.

In the current circumstances, there will be many forecasts which show that current facilities are inadequate. This is where the cash flow forecast comes into its own.

It is an early warning system – it as so avoids nasty surprises. Very useful as banks hate nasty surprises.

It shows us how much extra resources we may need – where we get them from is a separate issue.

It helps us to identify potential evasive action in time for it to be effective.

Importantly it demonstrates to potential lenders that we understand the financial dynamics of our business and we are in control.

And by the way – it may take several iterations and action plans before we reach an acceptable and achievable forecast. But remember – NO SURPRISES

Sanity, Vanity, Reality

Whenever I start a finance workshop with Partners, especially Managing Partners I ask the delegates what their most pressing issues are.

Invariably the most common concern is cash flow. Thriving growing firms can find it difficult to fund their growth whilst the less successful find it hard to cover their costs.

Why is this always so pressing?

At its simplest law firms focus on a single measure -profitability. All the public comparisons and most internal documents focus on profitability. Reliance on a single metric is like a one-legged stool. However large and strong, it is liable to fall over!

Accountants use three measures to monitor business health – Profit, Balance sheet and Cash flow.

As the American writer Ed Reeser said a few years ago “Every major American law firm which has gone under in recent years had plenty of profit until the day it died – it is a lack of cash which kills law firms – not lack of profit “.

And yet, few law firms give any prominence in their management information to cash flow analysis, and the forward-looking cash projections. Too much attention is focused on profit not enough on cash flow.

After all there is much truth in the old saying “Turnover is vanity, Profit is Sanity, Cash is Reality “.

There’s a Crunch Coming

Raining money

Even firms which have always been conservatively managed, have healthy cash reserves and have not borrowed from the banks will face major cash outflows over the next year.

Others which have not been as fortunate will find their very existence threatened by the impact of COVID-19 and the resultant lockdown.

I have managed through several recessions in the last 30 years but this is by far the most sudden, deep and threatening.

During the last recession in 2009 I was asked to write a book on Cash Flow Management In Law Firms. Five years later when times were better, I wrote the 2nd edition. Now six years on we are back in recession, so maybe I should do a third?

But times move on and technology with it. I have recently done webcams and a podcast but they can only scratch the surface. Instead of writing a book this time round I have drafted a series of blogs which I shall post on here over the coming weeks, which I hope will help readers avoid the worst impacts of the crisis.

Becoming a Recognised Rainmaker

‘It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so’.

The Oscar-winning 2015 film “The Big Short”

In this is article Bob Spence and Barry Wilkinson will focus you on using your existing people skills to become one of your sectors recognised Rainmakers.

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/rainmaker

Looing Forward

Our opening statement was attributed to Mark Twain who was clearly ahead of his time as many of his quotes are relevant to Rainmaking. According to our data-to-results experiences, covering the last 27 years, there are recognisable trends that are strategic errors in business development.

All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence and then success is sure

Mark Twain

The first one error is this. It is vital to be able to identify and describe with immense clarity the people that should form part of your Rainmaking network. Very few people can do this.

So, our first key question is what type of network should you be building?

Can you answer that question accurately?

It is worth a reflection, so be honest with yourself.

Network

Can you describe your ideal network of connections in detail? Can you explain to your peers and colleagues why you would need this type of network to succeed as a Rainmaker?

Due to the urgency and pressures that Rainmakers are facing our network algorithm research looked at the popular myths and misconceptions that all lawyers are surrounded with. Many of these myths are constantly being reinforced. Our findings explored why we should question them.

Aleksandra Gora, CEO of Rainmaker PRO software with Professor T. Turowski

Think of the amount of time that is spent on crafting the professional ritual that is the ‘business-card-exchange’. Whether you refer to it as the ‘elevator-pitch’ or ’60-second-introduction’ or whether you deliver this business-card-exchange informally within mixer events or formally within the context of a ‘speed-event’ you are essentially an ‘aspirin looking for a headache’?

It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt

Mark Twain

Why is this process given so much credibility? There are best-selling books, well known speakers, training programmes delivered at a high premium and webinars that embed this process as a ‘must-have-skill’ into the successful Rainmaker.

Why would this process have the ability to create the right Rainmaking connections?

It is actually very difficult to apply science to your network of Rainmaking connections.

Question Mark

This would be to provide an accurate understanding of how you are hitting your revenue figures. Is it because of your network or in spite your network?

Get your facts first and then you can distort them as you please

Mark Twain

However, this need not be so. All of us working at developing our practice on a day to day basis wrestle with two conflicting trains of thought.

The first is that it makes sense that generating outstanding commercial results as a lawyer requires a lean, well-managed, well thought-out, strategic networking plan. You have only so many hours in the day, and there is no time to waste effort networking and deliver your Rainmaking in the wrong areas.

This train of thought competes with the second which is that that this activity is essentially a “numbers game.” If you want to win the lottery, you have to buy a ticket.

The second thought generally overrides the first. There is so much more positive noise around this argument. Many lawyers adopt a set of actions enabling them to create minimal professional connectivity to the largest number of people possible. This second approach is reinforced continually by measuring the activity around investing time into developing new relationships. This can be on-line and off-line.

Let us make a special effort to stop communicating with each other so that we can have some conversation.

Mark Twain

This is the ongoing consideration of quantity versus quality in an approach to hitting our client acquisition targets. You have to make strategic decisions in terms of what works for you in the context of your time and what you offer professionally. These articles in 2020 will help you make those choices.

Networking

Keep in mind that a maximum of of separation is the introduction threshold to improving your network development. Our extensive use of algorithms showed these powerful results:

Someone who knows you well and is able to introduce you to someone that they know well is communicating your value within 1° of separation. The likelihood that an introduction could happen through a well-positioned request is a maximum of 82%.

Someone who knows you well and knows another party really well being able to influence that second party to introduce you to another party is communicating your value within 2° of separation. The likelihood that an introduction could happen through a well-positioned request is a maximum of 17%.

If we push this formula to add another chain to it which means communicating your value within 3° of separation through a well-positioned request has a maximum likelihood of 0.8%.

As your time is money these are actually financial odds so why would you even consider anything beyond 1° of separation? (A random business-card-exchange is not even in this measurement system).

You are in a casino and investing time. What odds would you play to?

Playing the Odds

I doubt if many of us would bet against James Bond but in reality, you are if you ignore the 3° of separation thinking. Our extensive use of algorithms asks:

Does this new connection have the likelihood to be an improvement on who you already know, and are they within or less of a meaningful introduction?

Is this new person already within a chain of three introductions to you? Is there someone in the room that can vouch that you are a person worth knowing? (That is 1°of separation). Is that person able to follow through for you? If not, then apart from professional courtesy requirements, will they really form part of your strategic network on the basis of your ‘business-card-exchange’.

This approach may be at odds that only the fees earned should be measured. This is a view that Rainmaking effort on a week to week basis is irrelevant unless it scores generates fees/wins clients. Networking management is also Rainmaking effort and is the key to ensuring that you are continually 1°of separation from a fee earning introduction.

There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Mark Twain

Our thinking based on analysing networking results thoroughly is that you must manage your connections ruthlessly and to the highest standard possible to differentiate yourselves from the competition in terms of networking behaviour. Every new connection has to survive the 3° of separation benchmark. If it does so, when you need to manage only the connections that fit within this framework.

We still, of course, have the same number of client hours per week to work with as we did twenty-five years ago; at the same time, the client can access our online presence 24/7.

Finally, as business development professionals we are constantly being challenged with the concept of “return on engagement” against the Rainmaking actions we take. So how do we measure this consistently apart from immediate revenue returns?

As an overview, here are some of the vital questions we will help you understand in our 2020 articles:

1) Why can the returns on business development networking deteriorate?

2) What are the major networking pitfalls we must avoid?

3) What are the skills we need to avoid the reduction of return of effort?

4) How do we pick out the most appropriate people to connect and network with?

5) What information do we need to build our network?

6) What are the current best practices in business development behaviour?

7) What are the best methods of implementing a networking plan?

8) Why is 3°of separation of separation the only benchmark in a strong strategy?

Last Year’s Best Client Can Introduce You To This Year’s Best Client

If only you knew how to ask….

This is a series of articles designed to develop your existing people skills into becoming a Rainmaker.

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/rainmaker

We are going to share the insights from successful existing PRO Rainmakers to give you the opportunity to increase your fee income by developing a new set of habits and a new approach.

Through our data-to-results insights we call this new approach:

The 3° of Separation’

By engaging through these articles, we will explain specifically how to improve client acquisition results through building a strategic network that is a good fit for your target audience. In other words, this is about improving prospect management. This will be explained as a skill. It is not a science or some form of social ability.

We all have networks of connections and access to the raw data that they consist of. Through our writing we will also explore how to turn that data into Rainmaking results.

The ability to network and make connections has an impact on every stage of the business development cycle for the legal professional. Whether it connects directly or indirectly to your prospects and clients, your network is a major factor in how you and especially your offer is perceived.

Most people are already aware of the concept the six degrees of separation.

As Wikipedia tells us, six degrees of separation is the idea that everyone in the world is six or fewer steps away from each other. This is so that a chain of ‘friend of friend’ statements can be made to connect any two people in a maximum of six steps.

Do you know ....?

The American playwright John Guare was nominated for a Pulitzer Prize in Drama and a prestigious Tony Award for Best Play for his work Six Degrees of Separation.

Six Degrees of Separation

“I read somewhere,” Guare wrote, “that everybody on this planet is separated by only six other people. Six degrees of separation. Between us and everybody else on this planet. The president of the United States. A gondolier in Venice. Fill in the names. … How every person is a new door, opening up into other worlds. Six degrees of separation between me and everyone else on this planet. But to find the right six people…”   (John Guare Six Degrees of Separation, 1990).

But to find the right six people. This is the challenge for every legal professional who is looking to acquire clients and make the right connections to get to that point.

According to Facpublication, each person in the world (at least among the 2.4 billion people active on Facebook) is connected to every other person by an average of three and one-half other people. The average distance is 4.57, corresponding to 3.57 intermediaries or “degrees of separation.”

In the U.S., people are connected to each other by an average of 3.46 degrees.

In 2013, researchers at Cornell University, the Università degli Studi di Milano, and Facpublication computed the average across the 721 million people who used the Facpublication site at the time and found that it was 3.74 degrees of separation.

For those of us in the legal services profession, those figures do not actually deliver much comfort, as our client acquisition cycle and relationships are not based on such a large volume of connectivity. Also, our professional reputations do not sit so easily within the online platforms that market this potential connectivity. In fact, most of us are not looking to “know” or “be known” by a large number of people. We want to be known by just the “right people.” This means we are trying to answer the question posed implied in John Guare’s But to find the right six people.

(6° of separation professionally performs something like this).

Connections

This series of articles will explain a method to find the people you need to connect with and it is designed for the legal profession only. The people you need to connect with are mostly within your grasp already, i.e., within one or two or an absolute maximum of three linked and appropriate introductions. This method is also about low hanging fruit that are easy to pick.

We have discovered through our data-to-results approach that unless a potential connection is within 3°professionally, and you can secure that first introduction, then that connection is out of reach.

Reflection

If you have fifteen robust professional connections, therefore, and they all have fifteen robust professional connections who have a further fifteen then using our process that equals 3,375 potential connections you could already be connected to and who may also have a business development contact that is a good match.

Imagine access to 3,375 connections if only you knew how to ask….

But how many people do you really need to know to succeed in the legal profession?

When we consider this issue, it is with an understanding of where we are professionally and what type of people we really need to connect with. We are usually in a professional space that allows us to lever relationships in a warm manner. We usually start from a strong professional position and offer something potentially of value to the person to whom we are introduced to.

Our business development and Rainmaking model is not, therefore, as random as a tuk tuk driver in Vietnam trying to gain an introduction link to Elvis’ widow.

Unlike John Guare trying to find the right six people, you as lawyers mostly know the first person, you have an idea of the second person that the first person knows, and you are looking maybe to bridge towards the third person who you are already aware.

You will already know the first person.

You already have an idea of the second person that the first one knows.

There is some likelihood you can project those links to the third person.

These articles will support your rethinking of your business development effort and help you avoid common, easily-made errors. We will explore how to build a network of connections to meet the strategic and immediate needs of your practice, a network that lies within the context of your capability.

You will find guidance, strategies, and considerations that support your thinking about how you need your network of connections to perform within the context of a maximum of three degrees of separation.

We will go through the most basic considerations in terms of connecting to the right connections that include potential clients as well as the people who are connected to the potential clients you want to connect with.

In our next article we will explore the question:

What type of network should I be building?

Barry Wilkinson – ABS & Beyond

Barry Wilkinson analyses the forces tranforming the legal market and assesses the prospects for independent law firms to maintain their independence.

Managing the Partners

We have written extensively in recent years about the changes in the market and the impact these have had, and will continue to have, on the business operations of UK law firms. A shifting regulatory environment (and changes to legal aid), ever increasing competition and advances in technology are forcing firms to consider their business model – and we have long argued that the implications of these changes will include consolidation via M&A (and failures), and the further growth of niche or boutique areas.

However, these effects are felt at a more granular level within the firm, and one of the key issues that has been highlighted in a recent article in The Lawyer is the challenging nature of the role of the managing partner.

Lone Working

Being the managing partner of a law firm has never been an easy job, and one of the key areas highlighted by those managing partners interviewed in the article is the solitary nature of the role. Andrew Lilley, of Travers Smith, suggests that ‘for that reason I found it helpful to work with an external coach’. We would of course advocate this, but irrespective of whether external help is sought, it is vital for the managing partner to have trusted advisors he or she can call on for advice and to provide a sounding board.

Moreover, the pressures on the managing (or senior) partner – which certainly have not diminished in recent years and almost certainly include the challenge of maintaining and enhancing profitability in the face of increasing competition and growing pressures on costs – mean that an effective management team is crucial. Firms may, understandably, not move in the direction of an entirely professional management team, but the top job must be supported by a skilled FD or CFO and, depending on the size of the firm, a COO or director of operations, an experienced marketing and business development director, and CIO or equivalent. In smaller firms some of these roles may be combined, but the functions themselves are vital to a successful business.

First Among Equals?

One of the key challenges for the managing partner is how to engage all the partners, who are after all owners of the business, while still being able to take (often unpopular) decisions and steer a course for the firm. Lawyers are by their nature intelligent people who are well capable of arguing their corner, and so gaining constructive input and taking the firm and its people in a certain direction – with or in spite of certain sections of the partnership – are important attributes of a successful managing partner.

Commercial Imperative

Admittedly, certain aspects of the current environment can help in this regard. The financial pressures all firms face mean that managing partners can legitimately feel they have a strong mandate to insist on unpopular, but necessary, disciplines. As Mark Dembovsky, former CEO of Howard Kennedy, argues in the Lawyer article, ‘your partners need to understand the old practices and behaviours, such as waiting a year to be paid or taking on a job without due diligence, are no longer acceptable.’ This is a mantra we have always maintained with our clients and, with the good old days of stable and seemingly ever-increasing profits behind us, it is more relevant than ever.

Nevertheless, some more intransigent partners will continue to behave as they always have, and so the characteristics of a good managing partner – the ability to listen and take decisions, coupled with a thick skin, in many ways remain a similarly constant theme.

A Mixed Blessing

The role of the managing partner is not, and never has been, for the faint-hearted. However, those people with the skills and the support structures described above, as well as the vision and dedication required to articulate and follow a clear strategy, will continue to find it a rewarding position.

And at Wilkinson Read we would of course be delighted to assist in any way we can.

Law Firm Client Care -The Client Journey Revisited

We were first introduced to the ‘client journey’ over 10 years ago by John Niland, of Success 121, and it was a concept that helped us to re-evaluate the performance of our business in a relatively objective way and – importantly – from the perspective of the client. Through a series of questions, each of which relate to a specific stage in the ‘journey’ a client takes from first hearing of the firm, through project sign-off to payment of the final bill, a fairly comprehensive self-assessment is possible.

The three questions that for us highlighted the most burning issues to address, and which resonate most strongly today as we work with law firms on maximising returns on their business development activities, are as follows:

  • “We have an effective mechanism for following up people that we meet”
  • “When somebody refers another, we undertake to call the prospective client as soon as our mutual contact has obtained permission for that call.”
  • “We have a prepared process for producing proposals that includes active participation with the customer.”

The Cost of Missed Opportunities

Our own experience at the time was not dissimilar to the answers we get from law firms when we pose these questions today. Snowed under by the work at hand and unwilling to impose ourselves on prospects who may not want to hear from us, it is all too easy to create opportunities but never follow up. This is, of course, doubly costly because – added to the business we are missing out on – there is the wasted resource and opportunity cost involved in generating those initial conversations.

At a recent conference, a firm of business analysts presented on a client research project in which they had interviewed and surveyed a large number of actual and prospective clients about their experience as they followed the “client journey” from first enquiry through to completed transaction – and probed the reasons for not proceeding if that had been their decision.

The firms in question generally scored highly for general levels of satisfaction and relationships with fee earners, especially compared with benchmark data for a far larger sample of law firms.

However, when it came to follow-up processes, the firms’ scores can only be described as appalling. A significant number of unconverted enquiries resulted.

Following Up on the Follow Up

As a consequence, a number of the departments concerned instigated formal processes for ensuring that every single enquiry and quotation was followed up and tracked – to the point of having a conversation with the prospective client to find out why they had gone elsewhere if they had done so. The result of this systematic attention to follow-up was an increase of up to 30% in the number of instructions taken on, as compared with the period prior to the implementation of this approach.

These lessons may not, of course, apply to every department in every firm. However, research in the US has shown that buyers expect to be involved in a dialogue with suppliers of professional services and not be given a “take it or leave it” option.

The clear conclusion is that, however they choose to go about it, firms must take the issue of follow-up seriously – otherwise opportunities will continue to be missed, and resources will continue to be wasted.

The Perils of a Fixed Cost Structure

One of the problems we regularly come across working with law firms is the lack of headroom, or buffer, the partners have when it comes to the firm’s cost structure. In balance sheet terms, the late Professor Larry Ribstein summed it up best – law firms behave as ‘thinly capitalised workers’ cooperatives’ – they have very little in retained earnings, which puts huge pressure on partners’ profits when times are difficult.

In terms of the Profit and Loss Account, conventional analysis is misleading. Law firm profit margins are usually quoted before allowing for partner drawings, or allocating a notional salary for the partners. If this taken into account, the Law Management Section (LMS) Survey carried out by the Law Society shows that the profit margin is typically only in the region of 5%.

The LMS survey has highlighted that, in the median firm, fixed costs (most of which can be allocated to people and premises) represent over 90% of the firm’s cost structure. Very few costs in the typical law firm vary in line with activity – which is a good thing when volumes are rising. Simply put, higher income with fixed costs means disproportionate levels of profit. In stable, growing markets, firms can get away with having high fixed costs. In uncertain or contracting markets, being able to respond is essential.

If volume falls, either in the short or the long term, the only areas that can be cut quickly are ‘decision costs’ such as marketing and training. This in itself is likely to produce a vicious cycle of decline, as lack of investment in areas that deliver longer term return leads to falling revenues, which further eats into profit margins.

Turning Fixed Costs into Variable

So the question is, how can fixed costs be turned into variable costs? A limited amount can be done with IT, by using cloud storage and replacing hardware, and procuring software as a service. Similarly, break points can be negotiated and property contracts can be renegotiated as they expire.

However, people costs represent the majority of the fixed costs in a law firm – and so people costs must be made variable, and ideally not be cutting the partners’ drawings. In other industries this would be called sub-contracting, but in the legal world we like to say outsourcing.

Business processes can be outsourced, including secretarial and transcription services, IT, finance, HR, and most non-fee earning functions. This has so far been popular among very small firms who cannot afford the overheads of employing in-house staff, and also with very large firms, where the efficiency savings and the redirection of management time have justified the approach.

Outsourcing the Middle Market

However, many more firms in the middle market can also benefit from business process outsourcing as a way of procuring the requisite expertise without the fixed overhead of in-house staff.

Legal process outsourcing is an exploding market, which has already reached a market size of $1bn and is growing at a compound rate of 85% per year. To date it has largely been exploited by larger firms, but is increasingly becoming available to consortia of smaller firms, and there could be great benefits to be had by exploring this avenue.

In the short term firms can maintain their cash flow through better lock-up management, and this is an approach we would wholeheartedly endorse as a short-term solution to a short-term problem. However, the bottom line is that in the medium term the break-even point simply has to be lowered in order to preserve margins and mitigate the effects of fluctuating volumes of sales.

This means that fixed costs must be reduced, and in many case replaced by variable cost structures. This may be unpopular with many people in the firm, but it is better than the alternative when firms start to struggle to break even.
 

The Current Market and the WIP Imperative

Perhaps the timing was coincidental but the January seminar of APP, the Association of partnership practitioners, was particularly interesting.

The seminar was entitled “managing a professional services firm in distress” and the main speaker was Dermot Power – best-known as the administrator of Halliwells, the Manchester firm which went under not long after declaring a turnover of £80 million and a profit per equity partner of over £500,000.

Falling Demand

Dermot started by saying that the recently published official data suggesting we are in recession only serve to confirm the anecdotal evidence many of us have seen – but then made the key point that in a recession demand for most legal services will fall. Not a good start to the year.
He also indicated that (prior to the new recession) his firm had recently conducted independent business reviews for law firms turning over £30 million, £60 million, and £90 million. So not all of the problems are at the smaller firm end of the market!

One of his key insights was that over the last 20 years Work in Progress has played a major role in changing the funding structure of law firms. Until the 1990s, WIP was not formally recognised in the accounts, and nor was it taken into consideration in lending formulas. Up to 2008 WIP was identified by accountants as a tangible asset, recognised by HMRC and is taxed accordingly and used in lending formulas (by both firms and bankers) to justify increased borrowings.

One of the consequences of the banking crisis and recession that resulted was that it exposed the questionable quality and recoverability of much WIP. It also exposed how little the lenders truly understood the asset against which they were lending. Naturally, this means that lenders are far less keen to lend against WIP.

The conventional view is that firms need to do two things – firstly, to be far more circumspect in their accounting for and valuation of WIP internally; and secondly, if they want the banks to lend, they have to be far more clear in their communication with the bank of how and why the WIP justifies its valuation.

Regular readers will know that we very strongly believe in a third imperative, which is to pay far less attention to the accountancy and far more to the cash flow and the realisation of the WIP. Put simply – turn it into cash as quickly as possible.

A Cultural Shift

As the research for our 2010 report Cash Management for Law Firms identified, to do this successfully requires not just a big stick approach, nor even just systems – but a cultural shift. Fee earners need to be educated in the cash flow imperative and have appropriate cash flow standards (rather than targets), not only established for each work type but rigorously adhered to.

But if we are heading into a recession then firms need to be extra vigilant in adhering to standards. If work is scarce there is a temptation to take on work on unclear or less stringent terms – which will only lead to increases in WIP and worsen cash flow just at the time you need positive cash flow. Fee earners need to appreciate that WIP is essentially a wasting asset and performance measures need to be far more clearly focused on bills collected, rather than bills raised or even worse chargeable hours created.

It 2012 is going to be a difficult year, financial disciplines will be crucial not only in work in progress management, but also in cost management as we see in our blog on Cost Reduction in the New Legal Market